Planning Scenarios

Primarily in Beltway 

In this scenario, 66% of new development occurs inside the Beltway, 33% occurs in the suburbs, and 1% occurs in our rural areas. Over half of the new total housing is multifamily, matching regional demographic demands and, therefore, capturing a much larger share of the region’s residential growth. Most of that growth occurs at densities that support vibrant, walkable communities that attract additional businesses and employment as well.  

Primarily in Beltway - Prioritized Centers 

This scenario is similar to the “Primarily in Beltway” scenario with 66% of new development occurring inside the Beltway, 33% occurring in the suburbs, and 1% occurring in rural areas. The difference is that about 30% of the development inside the Beltway is concentrated in four prioritized centers on the northern Green Line, creating a high-density mixed use corridor.

Concentrating growth in these centers results in less land consumed, greater efficiency for bus and transit service, and creates walkable 24/7 communities that attract a larger share of the region’s businesses and residents. To match the projected regional demographic demands, over half of the new total housing is multifamily.

Primarily in Suburbs

In this scenario, 25% of new development occurs inside the Beltway, 73% occurs outside the Beltway, and 2% occurs in rural areas. This scenario assumes that the trends from the last 50 years of development continue, producing more single-family detached suburban homes. The dispersed pattern of suburban expansion requires the expansion of infrastructure (such as roads and schools) and services (such as fire and police protection) to new areas of the County. Low-residential density requires the use of the car to get to critical services, thereby increasing greenhouse gas emissions and congestion.

Primarily in Suburbs - Prioritized Centers 

This scenario is similar to the “Primarily in Suburbs” scenario with 25% of new development occurring inside the Beltway, 73% occurring outside the Beltway, and 2% occurring in rural areas. The difference is that, of the development that occurs outside the Beltway, about 30% is concentrated in four prioritized centers.

Higher densities in these centers create walkable neighborhoods, but most still require a car for access, because all - except Largo - are not located on a Metro line. Because these are new centers, the County must invest in building new roads, schools, and other infrastructure. 

Grow Everywhere

In this scenario, 50% of new development occurs inside the Beltway, 49% occurs outside of the Beltway, and 1% occurs in rural areas. Redevelopment inside the Beltway revitalizes existing communities and creates more dense and walkable mixed-use neighborhoods that make good use of existing infrastructure, but might require incentives or rezoning in order to spur investment.

These revitalized areas are better able to support neighborhood shops and services as well as attract new residents and businesses. Development that falls outside the Beltway will continue to be suburban in nature. The dispersed pattern of suburban expansion consumes more land and requires the expansion of infrastructure (such as roads and schools) and services (such as fire and police protection) to new areas of the County.  

Grow Everywhere - Prioritized Centers 

This scenario is similar to the “Grow Everywhere” scenario with 50% of new development occurring inside the Beltway, 49% occurring outside of the Beltway, and 1% occurring in our rural areas. The difference is there are four prioritized centers that are the focus of development, both inside and outside the Beltway, which receive 20% of all projected growth.  

These four centers currently exist, and the use of existing infrastructure would make for an efficient use of infrastructure. All of these prioritized centers are on a Metro line and near the Beltway. Concentrating development in these centers provides them with enough residents and jobs to become true mixed-use, walkable centers. Redevelopment inside the Beltway also makes good use of existing infrastructure and revitalizes existing communities but might require incentives or rezoning in order to spur investment.  

The remaining development that falls outside the Beltway will continue to be suburban in nature, consuming more land and requiring the expansion of infrastructure (such as roads and schools) and services (such as fire and police protection) to new areas of the County.